?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 24 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 21 game
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 21 game
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Satanic · 16 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
63%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
81%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Satanic · 15 games
47%

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 29 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Skem · 28 games
36%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 26 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 25 games
60%
Axe
Axe
MikSa` · 22 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 21 game
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
757 picks · 349 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
606 picks · 305 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
600 picks · 566 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
587 picks · 740 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
553 picks · 335 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
544 picks · 536 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
514 picks · 609 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
508 picks · 768 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:28
PARIVISION 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by OG in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSatanic
46% · 273 games45% · 279 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
53% · 402 games48% · 402 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Slardar
SlardarDM
53% · 193 games55% · 146 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
56% · 86 games58% · 156 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Disruptor
DisruptorDukalis
47% · 246 games42% · 217 games
Dark WillowTims
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct23:5
PARIVISION 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 42:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
44% · 45 games45% · 247 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Slardar
SlardarNo[o]ne
54% · 209 games44% · 291 game
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
53% · 351 game56% · 165 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
58% · 82 games42% · 169 games
AxeForce
Axe
Warlock
WarlockDukalis
52% · 380 games49% · 195 games
Shadow DemonTims
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct26:7
PARIVISION 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
46% · 60 games52% · 199 games
UrsaNatsumi
Ursa
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
48% · 126 games49% · 193 games
LeshracYopaj
Leshrac
Phoenix
PhoenixDM
49% · 224 games52% · 250 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
54% · 264 games49% · 336 games
WarlockSkem
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
47% · 516 games52% · 212 games
Shadow DemonTims
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 58%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3