DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Axesignature
33 · 38 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 32 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 31 game
Pugna
Whitemon · 31 game
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
Abaddonoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
Tiny
Saksa · 22 games
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 21 game
Xtreme Gaming
Warlocksignature
xNova · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 19 games
Tusk
XinQ · 18 games
Disruptor
xNova · 16 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
XinQ · 16 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 16 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
759 picks · 349 bans
Hoodwink
606 picks · 303 bans
Jakiro
600 picks · 558 bans
Dragon Knight
587 picks · 735 bans
Tusk
553 picks · 333 bans
Disruptor
545 picks · 537 bans
Centaur Warrunner
514 picks · 602 bans
Mars
510 picks · 761 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:31
Tundra Esports 65%Xtreme Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaPure~
Troll WarlordAme
Viperbzm
TinyNothingToSay
Axe33
Night StalkerXxs
ChenWhitemon
WarlockxNova
SlarkAri
Dark Willowfy
Game 2prediction missed20:33
Tundra Esports 66%Xtreme Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 45:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerPure~
TinkerNothingToSay
Ember Spiritbzm
WindrangerAme
Axe33
TidehunterXxs
BatriderAri
ChenxNova
PugnaWhitemon
Spirit Breakerfy
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2