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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Yandexwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 38 games
66%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 32 games
59%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 31 game
71%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 30 games
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 20 games
55%

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 26 games
65%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 23 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 22 games
64%
Warlock
Warlock
Malady · 22 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 19 games
63%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 18 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 18 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
769 picks · 351 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
608 picks · 303 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
597 picks · 551 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
586 picks · 733 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
552 picks · 335 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 543 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
512 picks · 600 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
511 picks · 765 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Yandex
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total71% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:15
Tundra Esports 63%Team Yandex 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautPure~
50% · 59 games56% · 206 games
TimbersawNoticed
Timbersaw
Tiny
Tinybzm
48% · 356 games48% · 79 games
SlarkWatson
Slark
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
48% · 139 games48% · 328 games
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
48% · 161 game46% · 17 games
Witch DoctorMalady
Witch Doctor
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
57% · 223 games48% · 308 games
MuertaSaksa
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed35:40
Tundra Esports 60%Team Yandex 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 51:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
OmniknightPure~
53% · 21 game49% · 215 games
UrsaWatson
Ursa
Tiny
Tinybzm
48% · 279 games50% · 30 games
ViperChira JUNIOR
Viper
Doom
Doom33
52% · 185 games56% · 176 games
ChenMalady
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
48% · 314 games45% · 203 games
AxeNoticed
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
49% · 195 games52% · 370 games
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed35:32
Tundra Esports 62%Team Yandex 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 1:07:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPure~
48% · 222 games50% · 98 games
Troll WarlordWatson
Troll Warlord
Tinker
Tinkerbzm
51% · 93 games54% · 253 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
44% · 175 games59% · 38 games
ViperChira JUNIOR
Viper
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
51% · 365 games48% · 395 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
47% · 168 games52% · 239 games
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 71%
Series resultTeam Yandex 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3