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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 29 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Skem · 28 games
36%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 26 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 23 games
61%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
45%
Axe
Axe
MikSa` · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 21 game
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 38 games
66%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 32 games
59%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 31 game
71%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 30 games
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 20 games
55%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 19 games
37%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
770 picks · 356 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
608 picks · 304 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
593 picks · 538 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
584 picks · 729 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 544 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
548 picks · 334 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
510 picks · 761 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
508 picks · 593 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:31
OG 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
48% · 468 games57% · 234 games
UrsaPure~
Ursa
Leshrac
LeshracNatsumi
52% · 202 games51% · 304 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Slardar
SlardarForce
52% · 238 games47% · 146 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
53% · 242 games43% · 167 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiSkem
51% · 95 games45% · 394 games
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct23:33
OG 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYopaj
59% · 235 games46% · 62 games
JuggernautPure~
Juggernaut
Leshrac
LeshracNatsumi
52% · 161 game52% · 152 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Axe
AxeForce
48% · 148 games44% · 50 games
Earth Spiritbzm
Earth Spirit
Muerta
MuertaTims
50% · 213 games45% · 336 games
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiSkem
54% · 70 games48% · 227 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2