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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 21 game
62%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 19 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
XinQ · 17 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 16 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 16 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
XinQ · 15 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Ame · 14 games
64%

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 20 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 19 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 19 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 17 games
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 17 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
774 picks · 357 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
611 picks · 304 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
593 picks · 535 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
584 picks · 729 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 547 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
548 picks · 333 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
511 picks · 592 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
509 picks · 765 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total82% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:38
Xtreme Gaming 32%Team Spirit 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:09:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperAme
59% · 33 games44% · 98 games
WeaverYatoro
Weaver
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
54% · 213 games43% · 129 games
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Batrider
BatriderXxs
49% · 218 games41% · 156 games
AxeCollapse
Axe
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerfy
57% · 39 games54% · 221 game
RingmasterPanto
Ringmaster
Warlock
WarlockxNova
53% · 244 games50% · 143 games
Bounty Hunterrue
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct16:35
Xtreme Gaming 31%Team Spirit 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAme
51% · 301 game53% · 300 games
UrsaYatoro
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
57% · 185 games48% · 344 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
58% · 261 game46% · 78 games
Earth SpiritLarl
Earth Spirit
Muerta
Muertafy
48% · 209 games47% · 373 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Tusk
TuskxNova
48% · 432 games46% · 293 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 82%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2