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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Amaru Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 38 games
42%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 29 games
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 27 games
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 25 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 20 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 20 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 20 games
55%

Amaru Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Gardick · 4 games
25%
Kez
Kez
Wits · 4 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshrac
TaiLung · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Wits · 3 games
33%
Axe
Axe
Oscar · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
780 picks · 361 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
614 picks · 305 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
591 picks · 513 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
579 picks · 722 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555 picks · 552 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
544 picks · 329 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
511 picks · 763 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
506 picks · 579 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
Pipsqueak+4 61%Amaru Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 25:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCopy
43% · 242 games52% · 107 games
JuggernautWits
Juggernaut
Pudge
PudgeNande
56% · 47 games51% · 366 games
PuckTaiLung
Puck
Axe
AxePalantimos
52% · 93 games55% · 168 games
TidehunterOscar
Tidehunter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEkki
47% · 130 games56% · 62 games
VenomancerGardick
Venomancer
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
42% · 191 game
Game 2prediction correct32:9
Pipsqueak+4 61%Amaru Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNande
50% · 260 games58% · 240 games
Templar AssassinWits
Templar Assassin
Leshrac
LeshracCopy
44% · 160 games46% · 398 games
Dragon KnightTaiLung
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordPalantimos
50% · 93 games47% · 279 games
MarsOscar
Mars
Tusk
TuskEkki
43% · 384 games60% · 190 games
ChenGardick
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKidaro
49% · 210 games
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 69%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2