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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 38 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 33 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 27 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 27 games
74%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
75%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 21 game
86%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
71%

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusk
rue · 19 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 18 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 17 games
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 17 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
780 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
613 picks · 305 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
590 picks · 509 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
575 picks · 721 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555 picks · 552 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 328 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
510 picks · 761 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
505 picks · 577 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 69%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head8 – 5
Model total67% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:34
Team Falcons 61%Team Spirit 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
54% · 295 games52% · 68 games
ViperLarl
Viper
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
52% · 430 games49% · 52 games
KezYatoro
Kez
Mars
MarsATF
50% · 306 games49% · 326 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCr1t-
50% · 114 games49% · 453 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
51% · 201 game45% · 447 games
Tuskrue
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed4:31
Team Falcons 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 20:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
50% · 233 games40% · 87 games
WeaverYatoro
Weaver
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
55% · 142 games48% · 185 games
Dark SeerCollapse
Dark Seer
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
49% · 143 games50% · 201 game
SlardarLarl
Slardar
Chen
ChenSneyking
62% · 140 games49% · 169 games
Bounty Hunterrue
Bounty Hunter
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
49% · 228 games47% · 244 games
HoodwinkPanto
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 67%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2