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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
50%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 18 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
XinQ · 17 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 16 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 16 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
XinQ · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Ame · 14 games
64%

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 24 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 24 games
58%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 23 games
65%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
74%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
780 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
613 picks · 305 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
590 picks · 509 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
575 picks · 721 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555 picks · 552 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 328 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
510 picks · 761 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
505 picks · 577 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:10
Xtreme Gaming 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXxs
42% · 147 games53% · 170 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Windranger
WindrangerAme
50% · 182 games50% · 316 games
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
46% · 262 games54% · 126 games
Primal Beastpma
Primal Beast
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerfy
51% · 57 games56% · 34 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Warlock
WarlockxNova
46% · 266 games57% · 268 games
RingmasterZayac
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct9:25
Xtreme Gaming 47%Natus Vincere 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonAme
55% · 321 game49% · 75 games
HuskarNiku
Huskar
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
49% · 138 games42% · 239 games
Queen of Paingotthejuice
Queen of Pain
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNothingToSay
56% · 296 games49% · 358 games
Dragon Knightpma
Dragon Knight
Chen
ChenxNova
58% · 201 game47% · 316 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Clockwerk
Clockwerkfy
49% · 215 games46% · 183 games
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed41:9
Xtreme Gaming 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
54% · 331 game52% · 145 games
Shadow FiendNiku
Shadow Fiend
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNothingToSay
53% · 246 games50% · 205 games
Tidehunterpma
Tidehunter
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
50% · 391 game39% · 299 games
Queen of Paingotthejuice
Queen of Pain
Mirana
MiranaxNova
59% · 61 game49% · 225 games
ClockwerkZayac
Clockwerk
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
53% · 207 games44% · 362 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 55%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3