DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 33 games
Snapfire
Daze · 29 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 28 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
Tusk
Daze · 22 games
Axe
MikSa` · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 21 game
Virtus.pro
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 19 games
Pucksignature
Abed · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 17 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 17 games
Warlock
Fly · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 15 games
Jakiro
Fly · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
778 picks · 361 bans
Hoodwink
610 picks · 303 bans
Jakiro
586 picks · 498 bans
Dragon Knight
571 picks · 713 bans
Disruptor
554 picks · 552 bans
Tusk
539 picks · 323 bans
Mars
509 picks · 758 bans
Centaur Warrunner
502 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total74% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
OG 66%Virtus.pro 34%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 27:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Queen of PainTimado
Dragon KnightForce
AxeSabeRLight-
SlardarYopaj
PangolierAbed
VenomancerSkem
Dark WillowHellscream
Shadow DemonTims
TuskFly
Game 2prediction correct26:14
OG 63%Virtus.pro 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 36:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightYopaj
UrsaTimado
KezNatsumi
Ember SpiritAbed
Primal BeastForce
MarsSabeRLight-
ChenSkem
RingmasterHellscream
Shadow ShamanTims
DazzleFly
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 74%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2