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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 43 games
60%
Largo
Largosignature
Collapse · 21 game
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Collapse · 20 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panto · 20 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
58%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 42 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 32 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 32 games
59%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 29 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Largo
Largosignature
tOfu · 24 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
573 picks · 402 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
486 picks · 289 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 386 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 485 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
341 picks · 632 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
329 picks · 236 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
328 picks · 309 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 457 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head7 – 2
Model total57% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:21
Team Spirit 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 56:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYatoro
48% · 291 game52% · 50 games
NecrophosAce
Necrophos
Lina
LinaLarl
58% · 12 games58% · 143 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierCollapse
51% · 207 games40% · 67 games
SvenmiCKe
Sven
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorrue
51% · 19 games55% · 43 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Ringmaster
Ringmasternot me
48% · 184 games48% · 410 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed38:41
Team Spirit 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
50% · 69 games34% · 11 games
SpectremiCKe
Spectre
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
52% · 221 game54% · 218 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
48% · 222 games56% · 314 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
36% · 168 games51% · 29 games
Witch DoctortOfu
Witch Doctor
Clockwerk
Clockwerkrue
47% · 245 games55% · 353 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct32:14
Team Spirit 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYatoro
44% · 266 games48% · 352 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
52% · 339 games59% · 78 games
AlchemistmiCKe
Alchemist
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
54% · 73 games47% · 347 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Ringmaster
Ringmasternot me
45% · 337 games48% · 24 games
OracletOfu
Oracle
Bane
Banerue
55% · 245 games48% · 459 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 57%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3