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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 22 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 21 game
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 21 game
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 15 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 15 games
47%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Satanic · 14 games
64%

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusk
rue · 19 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 18 games
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 17 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 16 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 16 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 16 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
778 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
608 picks · 303 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
585 picks · 492 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
567 picks · 711 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
554 picks · 550 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
536 picks · 321 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
508 picks · 757 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
501 picks · 568 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 68%
Hero pool strength50% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 7
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:10
PARIVISION 42%Team Spirit 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSatanic
54% · 311 games49% · 279 games
AbaddonYatoro
Abaddon
Viper
ViperNo[o]ne
51% · 43 games46% · 245 games
TimbersawCollapse
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDM
51% · 129 games53% · 223 games
Monkey KingLarl
Monkey King
Batrider
Batrider9Class
47% · 292 games48% · 166 games
RingmasterPanto
Ringmaster
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
53% · 191 game46% · 53 games
Spirit Breakerrue
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct7:27
PARIVISION 42%Team Spirit 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
52% · 405 games54% · 326 games
MuertaYatoro
Muerta
Slardar
SlardarNo[o]ne
48% · 252 games51% · 419 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierDM
47% · 489 games50% · 319 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Warlock
WarlockDukalis
46% · 363 games52% · 427 games
Batriderrue
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
44% · 263 games56% · 281 game
HoodwinkPanto
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct19:47
PARIVISION 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:09:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracNo[o]ne
47% · 171 game49% · 227 games
AbaddonYatoro
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSatanic
52% · 328 games51% · 149 games
Shadow FiendLarl
Shadow Fiend
Axe
AxeDM
38% · 173 games54% · 138 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage9Class
54% · 83 games59% · 133 games
Naga SirenPanto
Naga Siren
Bane
BaneDukalis
53% · 154 games44% · 262 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3