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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 38 games
66%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 32 games
59%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 30 games
70%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 30 games
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 19 games
58%

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
48%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 19 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 19 games
47%
Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 19 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 18 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
53%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
776 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
603 picks · 302 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
577 picks · 485 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
564 picks · 698 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
553 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 318 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
501 picks · 754 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
496 picks · 561 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total84% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:31
Tundra Esports 72%Nigma Galaxy 28%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPure~
53% · 268 games46% · 45 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Kunkka
Kunkkabzm
47% · 84 games52% · 160 games
InvokerSumaiL
Invoker
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
52% · 156 games53% · 175 games
AxeNo!ob
Axe
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
54% · 157 games51% · 385 games
BatriderGH
Batrider
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
46% · 342 games43% · 242 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct28:20
Tundra Esports 72%Nigma Galaxy 28%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPure~
51% · 212 games43% · 42 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
52% · 221 game47% · 142 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
51% · 174 games47% · 248 games
MarsNo!ob
Mars
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
47% · 265 games49% · 420 games
JakiroOmaR
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
54% · 220 games57% · 240 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Game 3prediction missed12:31
Tundra Esports 71%Nigma Galaxy 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistPure~
44% · 45 games47% · 56 games
JuggernautTA2000
Juggernaut
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
58% · 171 game54% · 386 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
51% · 288 games55% · 88 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
46% · 255 games51% · 370 games
JakiroGH
Jakiro
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
52% · 293 games41% · 152 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 84%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3