Win vs Team Phoenix — prediction ИБ 2025 · Dota 2

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Игры Будущего 2025 · BO3

result vs prediction

WWinwin 2:0

series probability

76%24%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Team Phoenixloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Win

No games played over 6 months.

Team Phoenix

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Snapfire

775 picks · 360 bans

52%

Hoodwink

603 picks · 301 bans

52%

Jakiro

577 picks · 483 bans

49%

Dragon Knight

563 picks · 697 bans

50%

Disruptor

553 picks · 550 bans

52%

Tusk

532 picks · 318 bans

51%

Mars

501 picks · 752 bans

51%

Centaur Warrunner

496 picks · 559 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Win

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total76% Win

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct27:10

Win 64%Team Phoenix 36%

The model gave 64% on Win — the game was taken by Win in 27:53.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo