DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 29 games
Tusk
Boxi · 29 games
Snapfire
Boxi · 27 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 22 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 20 games
Axe
SabeRLight- · 19 games
Dark Willow
Boxi · 19 games
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
Runa Team
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 56 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 52 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 52 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 46 games
Warlocksignature
Hduo · 43 games
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 36 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 35 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 35 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
773 picks · 360 bans
Hoodwink
602 picks · 300 bans
Jakiro
574 picks · 472 bans
Dragon Knight
558 picks · 690 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 550 bans
Tusk
526 picks · 312 bans
Mars
499 picks · 750 bans
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 555 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:30
Team Liquid 72%Runa Team 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Runa Team in 24:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritNisha
Abaddonnesfeer
Dragon KnightmiCKe
Batridernicky`cool
AxeAce
SlardarAlberkaaa
DisruptortOfu
Hoodwinkqueezy
TuskBoxi
DazzleHduo
Game 2prediction correct29:10
Team Liquid 74%Runa Team 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 20:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezmiCKe
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Windrangernesfeer
SlardarNisha
PangolierAlberkaaa
JakirotOfu
Dark Willowqueezy
HoodwinkBoxi
TuskHduo
Game 3prediction missed23:41
Team Liquid 73%Runa Team 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Runa Team in 47:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsamiCKe
Terrorbladenesfeer
SlardarNisha
PangolierAlberkaaa
UnderlordAce
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
WarlocktOfu
Snapfirequeezy
HoodwinkBoxi
DisruptorHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 88%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3