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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Gardick · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Wits · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Wits · 2 games
0%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Wits · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Gardick · 2 games
0%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 23 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
52%
Bane
Bane
Oli · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
天命 · 17 games
29%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 17 games
29%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 16 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
773 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
602 picks · 300 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
574 picks · 472 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
558 picks · 690 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 312 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
499 picks · 750 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 555 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:29
Amaru Gaming 36%Yakult Brothers 64%
The model gave 64% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 30:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonWits
50% · 121 game43% · 149 games
Windrangerflyfly
Windranger
Tidehunter
TidehunterOscar
46% · 73 games51% · 44 games
ViperMoon
Viper
Leshrac
LeshracTaiLung
43% · 77 games53% · 111 games
Primal Beastzeal
Primal Beast
Jakiro
JakiroGardick
48% · 219 games66% · 112 games
Naga Siren天命
Naga Siren
51% · 74 games
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed36:18
Amaru Gaming 37%Yakult Brothers 63%
The model gave 63% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierTaiLung
49% · 487 games48% · 193 games
Terrorbladeflyfly
Terrorblade
Kez
KezWits
44% · 29 games57% · 117 games
Sand KingMoon
Sand King
Axe
AxeOscar
44% · 164 games50% · 184 games
Marszeal
Mars
Chen
ChenGardick
56% · 186 games50% · 156 games
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
Shadow Demon
50% · 216 games
Warlock天命
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed37:22
Amaru Gaming 36%Yakult Brothers 64%
The model gave 64% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 46:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracTaiLung
50% · 245 games52% · 135 games
Ursaflyfly
Ursa
Axe
AxeOscar
45% · 240 games49% · 163 games
PuckMoon
Puck
Kez
KezWits
41% · 60 games57% · 117 games
Primal Beastzeal
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenGardick
56% · 274 games53% · 175 games
Snapfire天命
Snapfire
48% · 229 games
TuskBoBoKa
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 74%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3