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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 20 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 19 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 17 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 16 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 16 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
XinQ · 15 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
XinQ · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Ame · 14 games
64%

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 20 games
65%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Timado · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 15 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 14 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 14 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Daxak · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
773 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
602 picks · 300 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
574 picks · 472 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
558 picks · 690 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 312 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
499 picks · 750 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 555 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total69% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:20
Xtreme Gaming 60%Virtus.pro 40%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 48:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanXxs
54% · 146 games43% · 113 games
WeaverTimado
Weaver
Ursa
UrsaAme
55% · 242 games46% · 182 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
56% · 369 games45% · 526 games
Dragon KnightAbed
Dragon Knight
Batrider
Batriderfy
53% · 335 games43% · 306 games
Shadow DemonHellscream
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
53% · 453 games51% · 418 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed7:32
Xtreme Gaming 61%Virtus.pro 39%
The model gave 61% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 23:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautAme
58% · 90 games50% · 322 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXxs
55% · 254 games46% · 348 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
48% · 522 games50% · 319 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Tusk
Tuskfy
48% · 525 games44% · 243 games
MuertaHellscream
Muerta
Bane
BanexNova
53% · 170 games48% · 329 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed1:13
Xtreme Gaming 61%Virtus.pro 39%
The model gave 61% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 16:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
47% · 74 games48% · 383 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
50% · 417 games46% · 329 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Doom
DoomXxs
54% · 236 games50% · 157 games
Void SpiritAbed
Void Spirit
Batrider
Batriderfy
51% · 327 games53% · 277 games
MuertaHellscream
Muerta
Tusk
TuskxNova
51% · 449 games50% · 357 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 69%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3