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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 22 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 21 game
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 21 game
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 15 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 15 games
47%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Satanic · 14 games
64%

Natus Vincere

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 24 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 23 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 22 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 21 game
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
65%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
773 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
601 picks · 300 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
569 picks · 465 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
554 picks · 682 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
521 picks · 312 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
498 picks · 750 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
490 picks · 549 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:15
PARIVISION 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 52:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSatanic
41% · 169 games52% · 239 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
48% · 177 games57% · 223 games
Abaddonpma
Abaddon
Slardar
SlardarDM
51% · 215 games53% · 157 games
Monkey KingNiku
Monkey King
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage9Class
41% · 119 games55% · 306 games
SnapfireZayac
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
46% · 487 games53% · 242 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct37:12
PARIVISION 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSatanic
41% · 136 games52% · 244 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Axe
AxeDM
52% · 200 games49% · 126 games
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
55% · 331 game53% · 220 games
Slardarpma
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
46% · 244 games56% · 308 games
RingmasterRiddys
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
48% · 469 games50% · 482 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 64%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2