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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 39 games
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 29 games
41%
Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 25 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 24 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
QBFY · 24 games
38%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Batyuk · 24 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 23 games
39%

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 11 games
36%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
45%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 10 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mac · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Ponyo · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
774 picks · 357 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
597 picks · 300 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
564 picks · 456 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 549 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
547 picks · 676 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 308 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
493 picks · 751 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
483 picks · 548 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 25%
Hero pool strength55% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:34
Passion UA 51%Team Nemesis 49%
The model gave 51% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallize
48% · 267 games46% · 208 games
Sven23savage
Sven
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMoonlight
52% · 429 games50% · 403 games
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsBatyuk
50% · 337 games50% · 391 game
Storm Spirit4nalog
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
52% · 484 games53% · 297 games
PugnaNARMAN
Pugna
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
49% · 298 games50% · 516 games
HoodwinkJhocam
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed12:31
Passion UA 52%Team Nemesis 48%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Venomancer
VenomancerBatyuk
59% · 68 games43% · 291 game
Dragon Knight23savage
Dragon Knight
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
58% · 243 games47% · 214 games
Queen of Pain4nalog
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMoonlight
55% · 150 games43% · 157 games
SlardarJabz
Slardar
Pudge
PudgeQBFY
57% · 71 game44% · 283 games
WarlockNARMAN
Warlock
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
51% · 486 games45% · 73 games
Skywrath MageJhocam
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 53%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2