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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 27 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Echo · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Echo · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 14 games
50%
Bane
Bane
y` · 13 games
46%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 23 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
52%
Bane
Bane
Oli · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
天命 · 17 games
29%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 17 games
29%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 16 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
774 picks · 356 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
595 picks · 300 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
561 picks · 451 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 549 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
546 picks · 670 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 306 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
493 picks · 748 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
480 picks · 545 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head8 – 2
Model total72% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:3
Team Tidebound 62%Yakult Brothers 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 30:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
50% · 164 games51% · 113 games
Juggernautflyfly
Juggernaut
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEcho
49% · 236 games56% · 287 games
Ember SpiritMoon
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerniu
50% · 233 games48% · 201 game
Slardarzeal
Slardar
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverny`
54% · 7 games55% · 57 games
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
HoodwinkpLAnet
45% · 225 games47% · 207 games
Shadow Demon天命
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct24:7
Team Tidebound 63%Yakult Brothers 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 27:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
48% · 372 games48% · 280 games
Terrorbladeflyfly
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand KingEcho
55% · 236 games48% · 348 games
PangolierMoon
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerniu
47% · 360 games52% · 160 games
Chen天命
Chen
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
56% · 135 games46% · 134 games
Axezeal
Axe
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagepLAnet
51% · 83 games49% · 264 games
RingmasterBoBoKa
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 72%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2