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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 31 game
77%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 27 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 25 games
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
78%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 20 games
75%

PARIVISION

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 21 game
43%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 21 game
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 21 game
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 15 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 15 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 14 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
776 picks · 356 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
596 picks · 301 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
559 picks · 450 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 550 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
547 picks · 668 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 306 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
494 picks · 748 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
480 picks · 545 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total78% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:27
Team Falcons 71%PARIVISION 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
55% · 310 games43% · 81 game
JuggernautSatanic
Juggernaut
Doom
DoomATF
57% · 138 games43% · 394 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
57% · 199 games43% · 83 games
BrewmasterDM
Brewmaster
Chen
ChenSneyking
58% · 178 games46% · 58 games
Spirit Breaker9Class
Spirit Breaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
55% · 208 games44% · 417 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct27:10
Team Falcons 67%PARIVISION 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterATF
45% · 112 games46% · 272 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
52% · 253 games52% · 296 games
PuckNo[o]ne
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
46% · 246 games47% · 350 games
PangolierDM
Pangolier
Chen
ChenSneyking
59% · 204 games55% · 237 games
PugnaDukalis
Pugna
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
51% · 394 games42% · 54 games
Spirit Breaker9Class
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction correct30:20
Team Falcons 68%PARIVISION 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
49% · 152 games53% · 156 games
Templar AssassinSatanic
Templar Assassin
Viper
ViperATF
52% · 32 games51% · 49 games
VenomancerNo[o]ne
Venomancer
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
52% · 121 game41% · 140 games
AxeDM
Axe
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
47% · 239 games56% · 217 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
45% · 86 games55% · 68 games
Skywrath Mage9Class
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 78%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3