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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 48 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 44 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 29 games
66%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 27 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 26 games
65%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 25 games
44%

Team Spirit Academy

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 8 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kyford · 7 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
kyford · 6 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 6 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 5 games
20%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
86 · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
777 picks · 356 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
594 picks · 300 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
554 picks · 445 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 548 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
545 picks · 663 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 305 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
493 picks · 747 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
478 picks · 540 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 37%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total89% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:6
Zero Tenacity 73%Team Spirit Academy 27%
The model gave 73% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKami
51% · 102 games50% · 255 games
Gyrocopterrubikon155
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckWorick
48% · 489 games59% · 111 games
LycanSunshineRR
Lycan
Axe
AxeNefrit
43% · 165 games52% · 256 games
Void Spirit86
Void Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
44% · 229 games55% · 345 games
Jakirokyford
Jakiro
Windranger
WindrangerdEsire
49% · 167 games50% · 185 games
Shadow DemonAidar
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed11:28
Zero Tenacity 74%Team Spirit Academy 26%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKami
45% · 112 games56% · 49 games
Broodmotherrubikon155
Broodmother
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWorick
50% · 317 games51% · 238 games
SlardarSunshineRR
Slardar
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
51% · 155 games57% · 182 games
Sand King86
Sand King
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
45% · 159 games45% · 274 games
Warlockkyford
Warlock
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
47% · 220 games54% · 220 games
Shadow DemonAidar
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct27:26
Zero Tenacity 76%Team Spirit Academy 24%
The model gave 76% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 44:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKami
54% · 263 games53% · 332 games
Void Spirit86
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckWorick
51% · 456 games51% · 328 games
Abaddonrubikon155
Abaddon
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
52% · 253 games45% · 224 games
Primal BeastSunshineRR
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
56% · 214 games48% · 342 games
Warlockkyford
Warlock
Pugna
PugnaMoOz
52% · 239 games38% · 199 games
Dark WillowAidar
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 89%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3