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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusk
rue · 18 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 17 games
59%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 16 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 16 games
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 16 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 15 games
53%

Team Liquid

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 28 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 27 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 22 games
64%
Axe
Axe
SabeRLight- · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 19 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 19 games
63%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
775 picks · 354 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
594 picks · 297 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 546 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
550 picks · 439 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
541 picks · 656 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
506 picks · 302 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
489 picks · 746 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
474 picks · 533 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total63% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:13
Team Spirit 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYatoro
54% · 373 games50% · 437 games
GyrocoptermiCKe
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawCollapse
54% · 221 game51% · 469 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
52% · 352 games48% · 129 games
Night StalkerAce
Night Stalker
Ringmaster
RingmasterPanto
46% · 196 games51% · 147 games
Naga SirentOfu
Naga Siren
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
48% · 262 games47% · 222 games
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed43:44
Team Spirit 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:04:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckLarl
51% · 282 games48% · 293 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsCollapse
48% · 218 games55% · 216 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Kez
KezYatoro
45% · 32 games55% · 297 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
49% · 154 games46% · 104 games
WindrangerBoxi
Windranger
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
52% · 243 games42% · 19 games
Winter WyverntOfu
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction correct33:14
Team Spirit 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
52% · 376 games49% · 186 games
LeshracmiCKe
Leshrac
Huskar
HuskarLarl
51% · 66 games45% · 264 games
Queen of PainNisha
Queen of Pain
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
48% · 192 games51% · 281 game
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
51% · 207 games53% · 316 games
RingmastertOfu
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskPanto
53% · 424 games47% · 218 games
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 63%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3