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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Runa Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 19 games
47%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 17 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 16 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 16 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
XinQ · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
XinQ · 14 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Xm · 13 games
62%

Runa Team

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 56 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 51 game
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 51 game
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 48 games
69%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Hduo · 42 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 36 games
42%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 36 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
775 picks · 354 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
594 picks · 297 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 546 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
550 picks · 439 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
541 picks · 656 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
506 picks · 302 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
489 picks · 746 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
474 picks · 533 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:27
Xtreme Gaming 64%Runa Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
55% · 267 games50% · 376 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
54% · 350 games49% · 504 games
PangolierAlberkaaa
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
53% · 214 games50% · 237 games
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Sand King
Batrider
Batriderfy
51% · 366 games45% · 266 games
Shadow Demonqueezy
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
45% · 563 games47% · 377 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed14:36
Xtreme Gaming 63%Runa Team 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Runa Team in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAme
43% · 120 games50% · 163 games
Ursanesfeer
Ursa
Viper
ViperNothingToSay
49% · 44 games54% · 178 games
Nature's Prophetnicky`cool
Nature's Prophet
Axe
AxeXxs
41% · 214 games54% · 147 games
MarciAlberkaaa
Marci
Batrider
Batriderfy
50% · 318 games56% · 178 games
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
Dazzle
DazzlexNova
51% · 179 games53% · 209 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct32:26
Xtreme Gaming 66%Runa Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
52% · 266 games45% · 339 games
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
55% · 162 games45% · 232 games
Batridernicky`cool
Batrider
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
52% · 172 games45% · 145 games
AxeAlberkaaa
Axe
Ringmaster
Ringmasterfy
49% · 196 games50% · 69 games
Skywrath Magequeezy
Skywrath Mage
Naga Siren
Naga SirenxNova
53% · 139 games54% · 150 games
ChenHduo
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 77%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3