DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlock
Riddys · 24 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 19 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
Dazzle
Riddys · 18 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
Bane
Oli · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 17 games
Jakiro
Poloson · 16 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
773 picks · 353 bans
Hoodwink
592 picks · 297 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 546 bans
Jakiro
547 picks · 434 bans
Dragon Knight
539 picks · 649 bans
Tusk
503 picks · 300 bans
Mars
485 picks · 747 bans
Centaur Warrunner
472 picks · 532 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 41%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total81% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:51
Natus Vincere 68%Yakult Brothers 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 58:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautgotthejuice
Dragon Knightflyfly
Slardarpma
LeshracMoon
JakiroRiddys
Primal Beastzeal
Storm SpiritNiku
BatriderBoBoKa
HoodwinkZayac
Ringmaster天命
Game 2prediction correct35:19
Natus Vincere 68%Yakult Brothers 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Terrorbladeflyfly
Queen of PainNiku
LeshracBoBoKa
Primal Beastpma
Ember SpiritMoon
SnapfireZayac
Marszeal
GrimstrokeRiddys
Enchantress天命
Game 3prediction correct23:14
Natus Vincere 69%Yakult Brothers 31%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Centaur Warrunnerzeal
PangolierNiku
Morphlingflyfly
Broodmotherpma
Queen of PainMoon
SnapfireZayac
Jakiro天命
DisruptorRiddys
TuskBoBoKa
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 81%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3