DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Axesignature
33 · 37 games
Batridersignature
Ari · 30 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 29 games
Pugna
Whitemon · 28 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
Abaddonsignature
Pure~ · 23 games
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
Tusk
Saksa · 19 games
Team Liquid
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 28 games
Snapfire
Boxi · 27 games
Tusk
Boxi · 27 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 22 games
Axe
SabeRLight- · 19 games
Dark Willow
Boxi · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 19 games
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
773 picks · 354 bans
Hoodwink
589 picks · 297 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 548 bans
Jakiro
543 picks · 428 bans
Dragon Knight
537 picks · 641 bans
Tusk
500 picks · 300 bans
Mars
484 picks · 743 bans
Centaur Warrunner
466 picks · 530 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 7
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:31
Tundra Esports 61%Team Liquid 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautPure~
LeshracmiCKe
Abaddon33
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Puckbzm
Monkey KingNisha
BaneWhitemon
OracletOfu
BatriderAri
ClockwerkBoxi
Game 2prediction missed7:32
Tundra Esports 61%Team Liquid 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritPure~
HuskarNisha
Timbersaw33
Monkey KingmiCKe
Queen of Painbzm
MarsAce
HoodwinkAri
TuskBoxi
ClockwerkWhitemon
PugnatOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2