?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 58 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 46 games
54%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 42 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 34 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 34 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 31 game
65%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Crystallis · 31 game
61%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 30 games
77%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 27 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 25 games
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
78%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
769 picks · 353 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
581 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 548 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
539 picks · 411 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
526 picks · 634 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
494 picks · 293 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
478 picks · 740 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
463 picks · 521 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 81%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total73% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:26
MOUZ 36%Team Falcons 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
49% · 211 games50% · 388 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
50% · 314 games49% · 299 games
MarsATF
Mars
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
45% · 408 games49% · 210 games
SlardarMalr1ne
Slardar
Warlock
WarlockSeleri
47% · 333 games63% · 215 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
49% · 94 games50% · 248 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct19:36
MOUZ 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallis
52% · 309 games45% · 338 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
50% · 174 games46% · 198 games
SlardarATF
Slardar
Mars
MarsBOOM
46% · 245 games57% · 59 games
SniperMalr1ne
Sniper
Tusk
Tuskyamich
52% · 401 game47% · 429 games
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Dazzle
DazzleSeleri
52% · 113 games56% · 218 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 73%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2