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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 17 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 16 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 16 games
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 16 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 15 games
53%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 24 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
57%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
74%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
769 picks · 353 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
581 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 548 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
539 picks · 411 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
526 picks · 634 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
494 picks · 293 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
478 picks · 740 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
463 picks · 521 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total79% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:14
Team Spirit 66%Natus Vincere 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezYatoro
42% · 39 games60% · 34 games
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
Faceless Void
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
48% · 145 games54% · 202 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
54% · 213 games45% · 187 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterrue
51% · 136 games50% · 156 games
SnapfireZayac
Snapfire
Ringmaster
RingmasterPanto
49% · 281 game48% · 235 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed17:43
Team Spirit 67%Natus Vincere 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosYatoro
54% · 9 games54% · 266 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
53% · 317 games46% · 278 games
Queen of PainNiku
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
43% · 126 games48% · 373 games
Dragon Knightpma
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
Snapfirerue
54% · 322 games43% · 48 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Tusk
TuskPanto
52% · 383 games54% · 192 games
ClockwerkZayac
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct48:18
Team Spirit 67%Natus Vincere 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
40% · 109 games50% · 203 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
50% · 140 games50% · 214 games
Marspma
Mars
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
52% · 198 games57% · 194 games
LeshracNiku
Leshrac
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterrue
46% · 123 games56% · 214 games
ChenZayac
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
50% · 295 games46% · 40 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 79%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3