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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 34 games
65%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
61%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 28 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
76%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
70%

Aurora Gaming

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 23 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 23 games
39%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 21 game
62%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 20 games
70%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
769 picks · 353 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
581 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 548 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
539 picks · 411 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
526 picks · 634 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
494 picks · 293 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
478 picks · 740 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
463 picks · 521 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total53% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:8
1w Team 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by 1w Team in 34:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
47% · 336 games47% · 345 games
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingSquad1x
50% · 203 games54% · 22 games
Phantom LancerNightfall
Phantom Lancer
Axe
AxeSSS
46% · 140 games51% · 222 games
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
Mars
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
45% · 266 games58% · 151 game
Naga SirenOli
Naga Siren
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRein
56% · 72 games50% · 277 games
RingmasterMira
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct23:23
1w Team 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 46:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezMunkushi~
38% · 41 game51% · 222 games
GyrocopterNightfall
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand KingSquad1x
48% · 226 games51% · 284 games
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Axe
AxeSSS
46% · 176 games54% · 220 games
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
45% · 277 games59% · 110 games
Naga SirenOli
Naga Siren
Pugna
PugnaRein
50% · 182 games54% · 66 games
Skywrath MageMira
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct8:24
1w Team 49%Aurora Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Venomancer
VenomancerMunkushi~
61% · 59 games44% · 240 games
Dragon KnightNightfall
Dragon Knight
Huskar
HuskarSquad1x
54% · 72 games44% · 168 games
Queen of PainMikoto
Queen of Pain
Axe
AxeSSS
47% · 177 games48% · 187 games
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
Centaur Warrunner
Dazzle
DazzleRein
53% · 131 game60% · 31 game
RikiMira
Riki
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
50% · 357 games48% · 170 games
WarlockOli
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 53%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3