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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 57 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 46 games
54%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 41 game
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 34 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 34 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 31 game
65%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Crystallis · 31 game
61%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 34 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 27 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 24 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 20 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
770 picks · 354 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
574 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 551 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
531 picks · 400 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
516 picks · 627 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 291 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
469 picks · 740 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 509 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total93% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:16
MOUZ 79%Pipsqueak+4 21%
The model gave 79% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
48% · 265 games51% · 79 games
JuggernautNande
Juggernaut
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMidOne
54% · 153 games51% · 243 games
AxePalantimos
Axe
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
45% · 340 games51% · 397 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Chen
ChenSeleri
56% · 168 games51% · 272 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Tusk
Tuskyamich
48% · 357 games45% · 292 games
Shadow DemonKidaro
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct33:42
MOUZ 78%Pipsqueak+4 22%
The model gave 78% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallis
49% · 234 games50% · 218 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMidOne
47% · 148 games47% · 44 games
HuskarNande
Huskar
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBOOM
50% · 118 games47% · 183 games
MarsPalantimos
Mars
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
55% · 217 games55% · 104 games
DazzleEkki
Dazzle
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
50% · 73 games48% · 241 game
DisruptorKidaro
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 93%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2