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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 28 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 26 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 26 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 22 games
64%
Axe
Axe
SabeRLight- · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 19 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 18 games
61%

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 11 games
36%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 10 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mac · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Jing · 8 games
63%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Raven · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
766 picks · 354 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
573 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 551 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
529 picks · 393 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
514 picks · 622 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 288 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
465 picks · 736 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
454 picks · 509 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:39
Team Liquid 77%Team Nemesis 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:00:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawAce
48% · 212 games57% · 214 games
Ursa23savage
Ursa
Kez
KezmiCKe
47% · 35 games45% · 206 games
Queen of Pain4nalog
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
49% · 321 game52% · 236 games
MarsJabz
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfiretOfu
46% · 397 games55% · 214 games
PugnaNARMAN
Pugna
Lion
LionBoxi
47% · 121 game54% · 216 games
Shadow DemonJhocam
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct41:12
Team Liquid 77%Team Nemesis 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarAce
42% · 177 games53% · 261 game
Ursa23savage
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
46% · 401 game52% · 435 games
Storm Spirit4nalog
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
53% · 360 games46% · 300 games
MarsJabz
Mars
Warlock
WarlocktOfu
46% · 322 games51% · 386 games
BatriderJhocam
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
49% · 228 games62% · 106 games
DazzleNARMAN
Dazzle
Game 3prediction correct30:11
Team Liquid 76%Team Nemesis 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
49% · 186 games50% · 295 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawNisha
52% · 159 games49% · 325 games
AbaddonJabz
Abaddon
Pangolier
PangolierAce
48% · 392 games48% · 212 games
Slardar4nalog
Slardar
Ringmaster
RingmastertOfu
51% · 306 games55% · 83 games
Skywrath MageJhocam
Skywrath Mage
Tusk
TuskBoxi
51% · 402 games47% · 530 games
JakiroNARMAN
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 91%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3