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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 17 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 16 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 15 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 15 games
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 15 games
73%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 33 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
61%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 28 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
76%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 20 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
766 picks · 354 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
573 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 551 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
529 picks · 393 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
514 picks · 622 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 288 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
465 picks · 736 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
454 picks · 509 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:5
Team Spirit 69%1w Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezYatoro
33% · 27 games48% · 245 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
50% · 247 games44% · 259 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
51% · 320 games45% · 190 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
58% · 210 games53% · 309 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
56% · 282 games48% · 83 games
DazzleRein
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct34:19
Team Spirit 68%1w Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezYatoro
41% · 38 games53% · 87 games
JuggernautMunkushi~
Juggernaut
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
44% · 276 games52% · 238 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Axe
AxeCollapse
46% · 199 games56% · 250 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
45% · 380 games56% · 180 games
ChenRein
Chen
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinrue
52% · 123 games52% · 261 game
Batriderswedenstrong
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 85%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2