DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 32 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 27 games
Snapfire
Daze · 26 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 22 games
Tusk
Daze · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
Team Tidebound
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
Puckoften banned
Echo · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Echo · 13 games
Bane
y` · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
766 picks · 354 bans
Hoodwink
573 picks · 299 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 551 bans
Jakiro
529 picks · 393 bans
Dragon Knight
514 picks · 622 bans
Tusk
484 picks · 288 bans
Mars
465 picks · 736 bans
Centaur Warrunner
454 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
OG 53%Team Tidebound 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightNatsumi
Juggernautshiro
PangolierYopaj
Centaur Warrunnerniu
BristlebackForce
Sand KingEcho
SnapfireTims
Enchantressy`
Keeper of the LightSkem
RingmasterpLAnet
Game 2prediction correct34:8
OG 54%Team Tidebound 46%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNatsumi
Medusashiro
PangolierYopaj
LeshracEcho
MarsForce
Centaur Warrunnerniu
MuertaTims
RubickpLAnet
BaneSkem
Tusky`
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 59%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2