European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 12 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 8 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
Winter Bear
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Panda · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 2 games
Jakiro
Kaori · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Panda · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
771 picks · 354 bans
Hoodwink
574 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 553 bans
Jakiro
527 picks · 382 bans
Dragon Knight
510 picks · 616 bans
Tusk
483 picks · 287 bans
Mars
467 picks · 741 bans
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 505 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total53% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:9
Team Lynx 52%Winter Bear 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter7jesu
Medusalegacy
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
InvokerPanda
Puckmellojul
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
48% · 61 game
Skywrath MageDelight
Game 2prediction correct26:11
Team Lynx 53%Winter Bear 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon7jesu
Dragon Knightlegacy
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
PuckPanda
Void Spiritmellojul
AxeMinD_ContRoL
46% · 136 games
Shadow DemonDelight
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 53%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2