European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VP.Prodigy
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Serenada · 6 games
Snapfire
armageddon · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 5 games
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 4 games
Marcioften banned
egx · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
спортик · 3 games
HULIGANI
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 31 game
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 26 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 25 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 23 games
Tusk
slimeyao · 23 games
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 22 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
769 picks · 355 bans
Hoodwink
575 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 553 bans
Jakiro
527 picks · 380 bans
Dragon Knight
509 picks · 615 bans
Tusk
483 picks · 287 bans
Mars
466 picks · 743 bans
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 506 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 52%
Hero pool strength60% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:21
VP.Prodigy 26%HULIGANI 74%
The model gave 74% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 29:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunnertakizawa
Juggernautv1olent-
Svencutie
Shadow Fienderase
Ember SpiritSerenada
MarsBb3px
Slarkraregods
ChenRESPECT
SnapfireJANTER
Disruptorslimeyao
Game 2prediction correct10:29
VP.Prodigy 28%HULIGANI 72%
The model gave 72% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 35:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightcutie
Ursav1olent-
RubickSerenada
UnderlordBb3px
Pangoliertakizawa
Storm Spiriterase
Snapfireraregods
Shadow DemonRESPECT
Naga SirenJANTER
Pugnaslimeyao
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 87%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2