Открытые киберспортивные игры 2025 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 39 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 37 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 37 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 34 games
Dazzleoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
Disruptoroften banned
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 27 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
Runa Team
Disruptoroften banned
Hduo · 56 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 51 game
Hoodwink
queezy · 48 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 45 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 39 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 38 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
772 picks · 359 bans
Hoodwink
577 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
556 picks · 561 bans
Jakiro
520 picks · 363 bans
Dragon Knight
501 picks · 607 bans
Tusk
482 picks · 282 bans
Mars
469 picks · 746 bans
Centaur Warrunner
435 picks · 502 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head5 – 8
Model total80% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:32
4Pirates 32%Runa Team 68%
The model gave 68% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightzvёzd
Terrorbladenesfeer
Slardarмистер мораль
Nature's Prophetnicky`cool
Pugnaariel
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Batriderqueezy
42% · 228 games
WarlockHduo
Game 2prediction missed18:5
4Pirates 32%Runa Team 68%
The model gave 68% on Runa Team — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 23:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightzvёzd
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Underlordмистер мораль
Nature's Prophetnicky`cool
Spirit Breakerariel
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Batriderqueezy
51% · 146 games
WarlockHduo
Game 3prediction correct16:35
4Pirates 32%Runa Team 68%
The model gave 68% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 30:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudgezvёzd
Gyrocopternesfeer
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Spirit Breakerariel
MarciAlberkaaa
WarlockPERDAN4IK
Snapfirequeezy
48% · 258 games
TuskHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 80%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3