ChristoFire vs Knights — prediction ОКИD 2025 2 · Dota 2

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Открытые киберспортивные игры 2025 Dota 2 · BO3

result vs prediction

ChristoFireloss 1:2

series probability

68%32%

probability at match start · final 1:2

KKnightswin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ChristoFire

No games played over 6 months.

Knights

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Snapfire

775 picks · 360 bans

53%

Hoodwink

580 picks · 301 bans

51%

Disruptor

559 picks · 563 bans

52%

Jakiro

516 picks · 363 bans

48%

Dragon Knight

499 picks · 607 bans

50%

Tusk

482 picks · 278 bans

52%

Mars

469 picks · 748 bans

51%

Centaur Warrunner

436 picks · 499 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% ChristoFire

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total68% ChristoFire

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct34:10

ChristoFire 59%Knights 41%

The model gave 59% on ChristoFire — the game was taken by ChristoFire in 35:52.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo