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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 13 games
77%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gbc · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
Niku · 11 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 10 games
30%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
22%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Zayac · 8 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Hyugadoto · 8 games
13%

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 32 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 29 games
38%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 28 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 26 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
48%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 23 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 22 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
774 picks · 362 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
579 picks · 301 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
564 picks · 568 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
515 picks · 360 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
498 picks · 608 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 277 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 751 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
436 picks · 498 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:38
Natus Vincere Junior 38%Yellow Submarine 62%
The model gave 62% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 50:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendgbc
51% · 161 game56% · 168 games
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Kez
KezonLiTaL
50% · 18 games46% · 136 games
TimbersawInfernal
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
51% · 311 games50% · 253 games
Dragon Knightbottega
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderHyugadoto
50% · 390 games44% · 199 games
WarlockHtrd
Warlock
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageGothic-
57% · 74 games45% · 198 games
Hoodwinkprblms
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct3:40
Natus Vincere Junior 37%Yellow Submarine 63%
The model gave 63% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawonLiTaL
42% · 190 games50% · 320 games
Gyrocopterbottega
Gyrocopter
Underlord
Underlordkrol9ash
47% · 73 games57% · 56 games
Keeper of the LightMirele
Keeper of the Light
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightgbc
47% · 357 games49% · 300 games
PangolierInfernal
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireGothic-
51% · 214 games57% · 99 games
Bounty Hunterprblms
Bounty Hunter
Dazzle
DazzleHyugadoto
48% · 87 games54% · 146 games
SilencerHtrd
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 73%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2