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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 48 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 44 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 29 games
66%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 28 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 27 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 26 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 25 games
44%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 20 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 12 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
young G · 12 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
776 picks · 362 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
577 picks · 300 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
566 picks · 569 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
511 picks · 357 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
499 picks · 602 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 273 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 748 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 496 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total78% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:8
Zero Tenacity 67%Nemiga Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKami
51% · 262 games51% · 249 games
Ursachempik
Ursa
Puck
PuckWorick
45% · 311 games50% · 169 games
Dark SeerCovisnine
Dark Seer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
58% · 230 games48% · 245 games
Earthshakeryoung G
Earthshaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
47% · 193 games48% · 426 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Dazzle
DazzleMoOz
51% · 93 games
Game 2prediction correct25:28
Zero Tenacity 66%Nemiga Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKami
52% · 203 games49% · 83 games
Shadow Fiendyoung G
Shadow Fiend
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
49% · 196 games54% · 245 games
Gyrocopterchempik
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawNefrit
46% · 201 game45% · 261 game
PangolierCovisnine
Pangolier
Dazzle
DazzleMoOz
48% · 72 games59% · 146 games
Shadow DemonVaniLLl
Shadow Demon
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagedEsire
44% · 63 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 78%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2