BLAST Slam V · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 32 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 28 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 24 games
Snapfire
Daze · 23 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 21 game
Tusk
Daze · 21 game
Team Yandex
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
Tusksignature
Malady · 19 games
Warlock
Solo · 19 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 17 games
Snapfire
Malady · 17 games
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
TA2000 · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
776 picks · 363 bans
Hoodwink
581 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
568 picks · 574 bans
Jakiro
509 picks · 356 bans
Dragon Knight
498 picks · 600 bans
Tusk
482 picks · 273 bans
Mars
475 picks · 750 bans
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 496 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:16
OG 47%Team Yandex 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by OG in 40:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNatsumi
Templar AssassinWatson
Dragon KnightYopaj
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
AxeForce
SlardarChira JUNIOR
VenomancerSkem
BatriderSaksa
SnapfireTims
JakiroMalady
Game 2prediction correct10:26
OG 47%Team Yandex 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
LinaWatson
Sand KingYopaj
BristlebackNoticed
Dark SeerForce
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
SnapfireSkem
Naga SirenMalady
Spirit BreakerTims
WindrangerSaksa
Game 3prediction correct10:34
OG 45%Team Yandex 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 46:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNatsumi
UrsaWatson
BeastmasterYopaj
Sand KingChira JUNIOR
AxeForce
SlardarNoticed
SnapfireTims
JakiroMalady
EnchantressSkem
WindrangerSaksa
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 54%
Series resultTeam Yandex 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3