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CCT Season 2 Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 34 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 26 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 26 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 20 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 17 games
65%

Runa Team

Disruptor
Disruptor
Hduo · 55 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 51 game
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 45 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 44 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 39 games
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
41%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
782 picks · 362 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
581 picks · 300 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
577 picks · 573 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
501 picks · 350 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
497 picks · 593 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 273 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
477 picks · 753 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
435 picks · 1109 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:21
Pipsqueak+4 51%Runa Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 35:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNande
48% · 208 games52% · 69 games
Juggernautnesfeer
Juggernaut
Leshrac
LeshracCopy
44% · 131 game58% · 219 games
Earthshakernicky`cool
Earthshaker
Mars
MarsPalantimos
47% · 237 games54% · 199 games
SlardarAlberkaaa
Slardar
Riki
RikiEkki
44% · 46 games47% · 286 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorKidaro
48% · 271 game56% · 120 games
DazzleHduo
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed27:32
Pipsqueak+4 54%Runa Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Runa Team in 39:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckCopy
51% · 363 games53% · 254 games
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Axe
AxePalantimos
48% · 163 games59% · 89 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Marci
MarciNande
51% · 207 games49% · 297 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Tusk
TuskEkki
45% · 427 games46% · 296 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Dazzle
DazzleKidaro
47% · 138 games51% · 362 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed16:38
Pipsqueak+4 51%Runa Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Runa Team in 20:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
55% · 336 games52% · 111 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Brewmaster
BrewmasterPalantimos
52% · 83 games52% · 198 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Morphling
MorphlingNande
58% · 181 game46% · 352 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Riki
RikiEkki
53% · 37 games43% · 166 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
46% · 399 games43% · 209 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 53%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3