European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 47 games
Disruptor
Se · 44 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 29 games
Tusk
yamich · 28 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 27 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 25 games
Winter Bear
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Panda · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Ancient Apparition
Stoic · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
785 picks · 362 bans
Disruptor
580 picks · 576 bans
Hoodwink
580 picks · 301 bans
Jakiro
500 picks · 349 bans
Dragon Knight
498 picks · 591 bans
Tusk
484 picks · 272 bans
Mars
480 picks · 752 bans
Puck
436 picks · 1113 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total85% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:4
Zero Tenacity 73%Winter Bear 27%
The model gave 73% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 26:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackNefrit
Gyrocopterlegacy
AbaddonKami
PuckPanda
Sand KingWorick
JakiroDelight
WarlockMoOz
HoodwinkdEsire
Game 2prediction correct27:14
Zero Tenacity 69%Winter Bear 31%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordKami
Ursalegacy
PuckWorick
Primal BeastPanda
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
SnapfireDelight
ChenMoOz
HoodwinkdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 85%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2