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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 20 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 15 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Rein · 14 games
86%
Marci
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
86%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 14 games
79%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
79%

Natus Vincere Junior

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 12 games
83%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gbc · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
Niku · 11 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 9 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
22%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Zayac · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 8 games
13%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
788 picks · 361 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
582 picks · 301 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
579 picks · 578 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
499 picks · 343 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
498 picks · 585 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 272 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
478 picks · 756 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 1115 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 27%
Hero pool strength67% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:17
Most Wanted 69%Natus Vincere Junior 31%
The model gave 69% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 30:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristleback423
54% · 293 games52% · 184 games
Lycankrol9ash
Lycan
Doom
DoomfortniteMan
52% · 175 games55% · 283 games
MorphlingonLiTaL
Morphling
Batrider
Batriderniche
46% · 356 games45% · 439 games
Dragon Knightgbc
Dragon Knight
Tusk
Tuskxsvampire
51% · 376 games50% · 171 game
Bounty HunterGothic-
Bounty Hunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPonlo
51% · 214 games44% · 337 games
DisruptorHyugadoto
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct36:6
Most Wanted 68%Natus Vincere Junior 32%
The model gave 68% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 27:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling423
50% · 162 games49% · 61 game
Tinkergbc
Tinker
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painniche
43% · 179 games52% · 262 games
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsfortniteMan
55% · 181 game50% · 292 games
TerrorbladeonLiTaL
Terrorblade
Tusk
Tuskxsvampire
51% · 278 games51% · 180 games
EnchantressHyugadoto
Enchantress
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagePonlo
47% · 51 game51% · 56 games
Spirit BreakerGothic-
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 78%
Series resultMost Wanted 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2