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CCT Season 2 Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Publicwin 2:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Public

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 7 games
29%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 6 games
50%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Shad · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
60%

Passion UA

Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 36 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 27 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Batyuk · 23 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 22 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
787 picks · 361 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
580 picks · 301 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
579 picks · 578 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
497 picks · 342 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
496 picks · 585 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 272 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
478 picks · 754 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 1113 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:38
Team Public 35%Passion UA 65%
The model gave 65% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 1:09:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightShigetsu
46% · 249 games53% · 58 games
WeaverCrystallize
Weaver
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painxn丶e
40% · 185 games54% · 133 games
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
Broodmother
Broodmothermangekyou
55% · 26 games57% · 45 games
VenomancerMoonlight
Venomancer
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
45% · 113 games51% · 340 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
43% · 157 games63% · 154 games
BaneQBFY
Bane
Game 2prediction missed34:14
Team Public 36%Passion UA 64%
The model gave 64% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Team Public in 28:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonShigetsu
49% · 323 games52% · 297 games
Dragon KnightCrystallize
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painxn丶e
45% · 281 game48% · 391 game
PangolierBatyuk
Pangolier
Beastmaster
Beastmastermangekyou
49% · 438 games60% · 41 game
ClinkzMoonlight
Clinkz
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
51% · 176 games52% · 363 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magemrls
50% · 69 games50% · 195 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed48:13
Team Public 36%Passion UA 64%
The model gave 64% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Team Public in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmothermangekyou
60% · 32 games47% · 221 game
AbaddonCrystallize
Abaddon
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
49% · 200 games55% · 41 game
VenomancerBatyuk
Venomancer
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
48% · 244 games50% · 150 games
Void SpiritMoonlight
Void Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPuppey
51% · 172 games44% · 406 games
Snapfirekreker
Snapfire
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
44% · 315 games60% · 145 games
BaneQBFY
Bane
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 74%
Series resultTeam Public 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3