CCT Season 2 Series 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 39 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 37 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 37 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 34 games
Disruptor
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 27 games
Dazzleoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
HULIGANI
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 27 games
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 25 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 22 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 22 games
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 21 game
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
789 picks · 362 bans
Disruptor
580 picks · 579 bans
Hoodwink
579 picks · 301 bans
Dragon Knight
496 picks · 582 bans
Jakiro
495 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
483 picks · 270 bans
Mars
477 picks · 754 bans
Puck
439 picks · 1115 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total79% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
4Pirates 35%HULIGANI 65%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 33:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marcizvёzd
Weaverv1olent-
BeastmasterNattyNarwhal
Queen of Painerase
Timbersawмистер мораль
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Shadow Demonariel
JakiroRESPECT
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Pugnaslimeyao
Game 2prediction correct11:34
4Pirates 33%HULIGANI 67%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 26:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Rikizvёzd
Juggernautv1olent-
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Shadow Fienderase
Marsмистер мораль
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Gyrocopterariel
DisruptorRESPECT
JakiroPERDAN4IK
Pugnaslimeyao
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 79%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2