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CCT Season 2 Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 39 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 37 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 34 games
38%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 32 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 27 games
56%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
48%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 32 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 25 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 22 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 21 game
52%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Kaori · 19 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 19 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
787 picks · 362 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
579 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
578 picks · 581 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
492 picks · 576 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
491 picks · 332 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 268 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
471 picks · 754 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 1110 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:32
4Pirates 34%Pipsqueak+4 66%
The model gave 66% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 31:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursazvёzd
51% · 214 games51% · 270 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNattyNarwhal
55% · 248 games46% · 292 games
MarsPalantimos
Mars
Tidehunter
Tidehunterмистер мораль
51% · 162 games49% · 171 game
Primal BeastCopy
Primal Beast
Jakiro
JakiroPERDAN4IK
47% · 279 games53% · 339 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Tusk
Tuskariel
45% · 397 games52% · 228 games
PugnaKidaro
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed38:23
4Pirates 34%Pipsqueak+4 66%
The model gave 66% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 36:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightzvёzd
47% · 339 games54% · 71 game
HuskarCopy
Huskar
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNattyNarwhal
57% · 239 games46% · 321 game
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
54% · 177 games45% · 285 games
MarsNande
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressPERDAN4IK
43% · 134 games56% · 73 games
RikiEkki
Riki
Tusk
Tuskariel
51% · 333 games47% · 472 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct10:27
4Pirates 34%Pipsqueak+4 66%
The model gave 66% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 27:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNattyNarwhal
50% · 245 games49% · 431 game
Dragon KnightNande
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterzvёzd
54% · 254 games48% · 90 games
PudgeCopy
Pudge
Tidehunter
Tidehunterмистер мораль
54% · 122 games47% · 298 games
MarsPalantimos
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressPERDAN4IK
47% · 167 games53% · 236 games
PugnaKidaro
Pugna
Tusk
Tuskariel
48% · 334 games52% · 67 games
RikiEkki
Riki
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 78%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3