European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Most Wanted
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 19 games
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
Dazzlesignature
Rein · 14 games
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 14 games
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
Chensignature
Rein · 13 games
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 13 games
Yellow Submarine
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 32 games
Tusk
mrls · 29 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 26 games
Snapfire
sayuw · 25 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 22 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
787 picks · 363 bans
Disruptor
579 picks · 582 bans
Hoodwink
579 picks · 299 bans
Dragon Knight
492 picks · 575 bans
Jakiro
490 picks · 331 bans
Tusk
480 picks · 268 bans
Mars
469 picks · 754 bans
Puck
438 picks · 1109 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 40%
Hero pool strength64% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:17
Most Wanted 60%Yellow Submarine 40%
The model gave 60% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 40:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade423
Queen of PainMirele
Nature's Prophetniche
Leshracbottega
MarsfortniteMan
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
ChenPonlo
Bounty Hunterprblms
Tuskxsvampire
IoHtrd
Game 2prediction correct32:25
Most Wanted 57%Yellow Submarine 43%
The model gave 57% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 38:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Painniche
Dragon Knightbottega
Windranger423
Void SpiritMirele
MarsfortniteMan
SlardarInfernal
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Muertaprblms
JakiroPonlo
SilencerHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 63%
Series resultMost Wanted 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2