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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 7 games
29%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
Aidar · 7 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
kyford · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 5 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kyford · 5 games
40%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
86 · 4 games
75%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
rubikon155 · 4 games
75%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
784 picks · 361 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
578 picks · 583 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
577 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
490 picks · 570 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
489 picks · 327 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 267 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 752 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 1107 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 49%
Hero pool strength57% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:29
Team Spirit Academy 30%Kalmychata 70%
The model gave 70% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 35:40.
Game 2prediction correct14:32
Team Spirit Academy 30%Kalmychata 70%
The model gave 70% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 31:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 70%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2