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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 19 games
63%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
71%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Rein · 14 games
86%
Marci
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
86%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 13 games
85%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 13 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 13 games
77%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 13 games
69%

VP.Prodigy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
14%
Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 6 games
17%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marcioften banned
egx · 3 games
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
спортик · 3 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
egx · 3 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
egx · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
783 picks · 360 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
578 picks · 583 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
577 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
489 picks · 569 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
488 picks · 325 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
477 picks · 268 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 751 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
436 picks · 1106 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 25%
Hero pool strength71% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:38
Most Wanted 78%VP.Prodigy 22%
The model gave 78% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 47:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling423
53% · 186 games44% · 296 games
Terrorbladecutie
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
50% · 281 game49% · 100 games
Axetakizawa
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPonlo
51% · 218 games51% · 57 games
HuskarSerenada
Huskar
Slardar
SlardarfortniteMan
56% · 161 game47% · 243 games
Batriderraregods
Batrider
49% · 150 games
EnchantressJANTER
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct42:12
Most Wanted 79%VP.Prodigy 21%
The model gave 79% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
Batrider423
47% · 437 games48% · 366 games
PuckSerenada
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
55% · 359 games51% · 325 games
Gyrocoptercutie
Gyrocopter
Mars
MarsfortniteMan
46% · 331 game46% · 258 games
Centaur Warrunnertakizawa
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfirePonlo
55% · 361 game55% · 129 games
Bounty Hunterraregods
Bounty Hunter
46% · 410 games
TuskJANTER
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 91%
Series resultMost Wanted 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2