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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 31 game
61%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 29 games
38%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 27 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 26 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 25 games
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 22 games
41%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%

HULIGANI

Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 24 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
Bb3px · 24 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 21 game
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
783 picks · 359 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
578 picks · 583 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
577 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
488 picks · 568 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
488 picks · 323 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
477 picks · 268 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 751 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 1106 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 51%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total66% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:22
Yellow Submarine 41%HULIGANI 59%
The model gave 59% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 53:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunabottega
39% · 32 games40% · 46 games
Juggernautv1olent-
Juggernaut
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMirele
46% · 290 games50% · 193 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastInfernal
52% · 128 games56% · 149 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHtrd
57% · 133 games52% · 161 game
WarlockRESPECT
Warlock
Techies
Techiesprblms
45% · 22 games53% · 56 games
Bounty Hunterslimeyao
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct11:23
Yellow Submarine 42%HULIGANI 58%
The model gave 58% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbottega
51% · 190 games63% · 65 games
Juggernautv1olent-
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
48% · 285 games47% · 411 games
Dragon Knighterase
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
48% · 261 game48% · 295 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Batrider
Batriderprblms
50% · 318 games45% · 483 games
Tuskslimeyao
Tusk
Warlock
WarlockHtrd
50% · 277 games53% · 77 games
OracleRESPECT
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 66%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2