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BLAST Slam V · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 56 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 41 game
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 33 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 33 games
73%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 31 game
65%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 30 games
67%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 23 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 21 game
71%
Bane
Bane
Oli · 19 games
47%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 17 games
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 16 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Poloson · 16 games
31%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 15 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
786 picks · 359 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
582 picks · 585 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
576 picks · 300 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
488 picks · 317 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 568 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
476 picks · 268 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
466 picks · 754 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 1113 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 41%
Hero pool strength60% MOUZ
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total88% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:16
MOUZ 74%Yakult Brothers 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
50% · 309 games50% · 497 games
Storm Spiritflyfly
Storm Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
47% · 142 games53% · 178 games
Void SpiritEmo
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
47% · 390 games49% · 351 game
Centaur Warrunnerzeal
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
WarlockSeleri
43% · 259 games60% · 193 games
Naga Siren天命
Naga Siren
Tusk
Tuskyamich
49% · 383 games50% · 264 games
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed11:31
MOUZ 75%Yakult Brothers 25%
The model gave 75% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 31:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMidOne
46% · 328 games55% · 75 games
Juggernautflyfly
Juggernaut
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
51% · 320 games56% · 204 games
LeshracEmo
Leshrac
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
43% · 133 games44% · 293 games
Marszeal
Mars
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteryamich
53% · 282 games50% · 505 games
TuskBoBoKa
Tusk
Warlock
WarlockSeleri
49% · 280 games53% · 266 games
Shadow Demon天命
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct34:27
MOUZ 75%Yakult Brothers 25%
The model gave 75% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 48:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
48% · 200 games50% · 377 games
Gyrocopterflyfly
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
49% · 310 games52% · 204 games
Doomzeal
Doom
Slardar
SlardarMidOne
50% · 126 games52% · 132 games
InvokerEmo
Invoker
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
46% · 284 games53% · 79 games
PudgeBoBoKa
Pudge
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
53% · 208 games48% · 336 games
Disruptor天命
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 88%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3